The Alabama Crimson Tide (13-5) seemingly have their backs up against the wall in Saturday’s game against the #2 Kentucky Wildcats (18-1), but there are a few reasons to believe that the final score might be closer than many are expecting.
Kentucky is at home and has been bet up to -10 after opening up at -9.5, and with close to 70% of tracked wagers coming in against Alabama, it isn’t tough to figure out why the line has moved.
The total for this 12:00 PM ET game sits at 130 and has been bet up after debuting at 128.
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One of the biggest reasons why Alabama could keep it close has to do with the fact that they have covered the odds in 3 of the last 4 head-to-head meetings against Kentucky.
The Wildcats won 72-58 as 6.5-point road favorites last year, but Alabama won 68-66 as 4-point underdogs the year before.
Kentucky was a 73-67 winner the last time they hosted this game, but the Crimson Tide won the money as 9.5-point underdogs.
After the over hit in 5 of 6 meetings between these squads, it has failed to do so in the 3 most recent clashes.
Alabama had a 5-game winning streak earlier this month and has now lost 2 straight after falling against Mississippi State and Vanderbilt as small favorites in both games.
The over has hit in 4 of the last 5 games for the Crimson Tide, while the under has been a winner in 5 of Kentucky’s last 6.
The Wildcats have won 10 straight heading into Saturday’s matchup, but they’ve covered the point spread just once over that span while being double digit favorites all but once.
It’s worth noting that the Crimson Tide’s only cover of the odds came in their 86-63 win over Arkansas last time out.
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